Research

The AI Supply Chain Atlas: 131 scored chokepoints, and who can collect the rent

A 12-tier map from ores and gases to models and governance, scored on constraint, substitutability, relief time, geography, demand exposure and monetisability. Twelve falsifiable theses with pre-committed kill criteria, a corrections register, a provenance pass and a primary-source triage that records which supporting legs did not survive contact with filings.

Start with the 90-second case on the substrate node: the judgment, the evidence by source class, what changes it, and how a correction moved the evidence class without moving the score. Thesis 01 is marked contested as of 21 September 2026.

Single-name equity research: what the price requires, and the observable that decides it

A full-length note on one company. It states the question and the date its data is marked to; what the market expects and how that was established; the mechanism and the two or three pieces of evidence that carry it, by source tier; a scenario range rather than a point target; the observables and thresholds that would retire the view; and a version history in which each correction is shown against the earlier version.

One note is published in full as a sample: Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), version 2 of 19 September 2026, marked to the 18 September 2026 close, with its version 1 correction shown. Client notes are not published. To request coverage of a name or a sector, send the name, the question, the horizon and the delivery format.

A cross-sectional one-month model: the retired programme's final record

Thirty U.S. mega-caps, eleven factors tested and four kept, a three-model ensemble, and a walk-forward out-of-sample panel of 19 months, validated with a fixed battery (Deflated Sharpe, stationary bootstrap, purged hold-out). The programme was retired after its last run in April 2026; the snapshot, the validation record and the unedited output file stay published as a record of the method.