Forward Performance Ledger

Time-stamped, immutable archive of every signal snapshot published by the pipeline. This page is intentionally sparse right now — live forward-tracking began with the first bi-weekly production run, and we only publish outcomes that have actually completed their evaluation window.

How the Ledger Works

01

Signal Publication

Bi-weekly, the pipeline publishes a complete snapshot of 30 return estimates with conviction tiers and options overlays.

02

Time-Stamp & Lock

Each snapshot is frozen into pipeline/ops/snapshots/ with a date-stamped filename. Published outputs are not modified retroactively.

03

Forward Tracking

The tracker compares each prior snapshot against subsequent realised returns and appends a row to pipeline/ops/live_vs_backtest.csv.

04

Outcome Recording

Realised returns vs. model estimates are published here when the evaluation period completes — with all caveats and the current significance verdict attached.

Implementation Rules

To ensure comparability across periods, the following hypothetical implementation rules are applied consistently to all tracked outcomes:

Rebalancing cadenceBi-weekly
Position sizingKelly (drawdown-adjusted)
Transaction cost modelHalf-spread per leg
BenchmarkSPY (total return)
Options assumptionHeld to expiry (modeled)
Slippage modelSpread-based (real data)

Current Snapshot

2026-04-29V12Active
Regime: ModerateUniverse: 30HIGH: 6MED: 6LOW: 18

Current active signal set. Evaluation window runs for 1 month from publication (matching the model's training horizon). The full universe is visible on the Signal Dashboard.

TickerSectorTier1-Mo EstimateStrategyConvictionPublished
NFLXCommunication ServicesHIGH+2.4%OTM Call 2083%2026-04-29
INTCTechnologyHIGH+4.2%OTM Call 2095%2026-04-29
ORCLTechnologyHIGH+2.8%OTM Call 2093%2026-04-29
AMDTechnologyHIGH+4.2%ATM Call95%2026-04-29
UNHHealthcareMED+1.1%ATM Call67%2026-04-29

Showing top 5 by conviction. Full 30-ticker snapshot on the Signal Dashboard.

Prior Snapshots

No completed evaluation windows yet.

Forward-tracking requires at least one full 1-month window to lock in a realised outcome. Prior snapshots and their realised-vs-estimated outcomes will appear here as they complete. We do not backfill this ledger with synthetic history.

Important Limitations

This ledger tracks hypothetical implementation of model signals — not actual trading. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations: they cannot account for all market factors including liquidity, market impact, and operational constraints. Forward-tracked outcomes use the same hypothetical implementation rules and are subject to the same limitations. Past performance, whether hypothetical or actual, is not indicative of future results. All outputs are for educational and research purposes only. Not investment advice. Full disclaimer.

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